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Want to hear from the man who plausibly has more data on commercial real estate than anyone in Canada?
In the studio this week, Matt and Rod (Cory didn't survive the William Wright Whistler weekend) welcome Raymond Wong, Vice President, Data Operations of Altus Group, to look behind the numbers on what has happened across Canada in 2022.
Raymond unpacks which asset classes are selling, which are not, and what is set to rebound. You might be surprised with his answers on which Canadian cities have outperformed their counterparts and which cities are set for a big 2022. Raymond debunks all the myths and unlocks the data only for our VCREP listeners.
What is Altus Group?
Altus Group is a real estate services company. I’m part of the data solutions group looking at commercial and new home data across Canada. We try to make sense of market direction and look at opportunities and trends.
Has the commercial real estate market in the first half of 2022 surprised you?
Yes and no. Comparing Q1 of 2022 to Q4 of 2021, we’re already up 72% in sales volume. That wasn’t surprising, as we were expecting another record year. And a lot of that was activity that happened in 2021 but wasn’t completed until 2022.
With the increase in inflation and interest rates, we’re expecting to see an impact on commercial real estate but we haven’t seen it yet. Cap rates may be increasing but not by much. So I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop.
What is the relationship between residential real estate and commercial real estate?
There is a correlation between residential and commercial real estate. We typically see a lag in commercial real estate as companies adjust their usage or investment strategy that we don’t see as much in residential real estate.
We currently have less than 1% availability in Vancouver for industrial real estate, so it’s hard to imagine a slow down in that market. The lack of supply is a big factor. With the pandemic, we had a rapid slowdown in investments and shuttering of the office market. We didn’t know how the market would be impacted long term.
How do investors feel about the commercial real estate market in 2022?
Every quarter we survey 150 investors across Canada to see where they think the market is going. So far, that survey has shown us investors still have a huge appetite for commercial real estate.
There’s still a lot of capital to spend and a lot of interest in multi-family and industrial real estate. Industrial is driven by the lack of supply and continued demand for ecommerce business. We’re undersupplied for large warehouse space. And multi-family is driven by the constant need for housing.
Will cap rates go up in 2022?
Yes, cap rates should go up based on rising interest rates and borrowing costs. We should see that with industrial, office and retail. We need to see how supply and demand will play out.
If interest rates are higher, it costs more to borrow money. That should impact the sale price going forward.
How does commercial real estate fare through a recession? Which asset classes do well during a recession and which ones are at risk?
I hate to say that industrial real estate is bullet-proof but it almost feels that way. Industrial real estate should fare well through a recession.
We had a housing affordability issue before the increase in interest rates and the increase has just worsened that. So we have potential buyers becoming renters, pushing rental rates higher with the increase in demand. So multi-family should do well through a recession too. People always need to live somewhere.
The grey area would be office space and retail. With more people working from home and companies needing to cut back, office space may be what goes. And with the increase in supply costs and gasoline, the retail sector may be impacted. Just as people were starting to go back to stores and dining, they may have to scale back during a recession. But the retail sector has the ability to pivot, which we saw during covid.
Which markets are doing better in 2022: primary markets, secondary markets or tertiary markets?
To be honest, I don’t know anymore. If you look at interprovincial migration, affordability and the increase in remote work, Atlantic Canada has benefited from people moving back or moving in. But at the same time, a large number of people have moved into BC’s secondary and tertiary markets, where house prices are now up 40-50%. That causes problems for locals who can no longer afford to live there.
That demand in secondary and tertiary markets on the residential side drives the retail market. If you look at Kelowna, you can see the expansion of office space and the UBC campus, which will result in a lot of jobs.
But I am still a strong believer in the big primary markets, like Vancouver and Toronto, and their consistent returns. From an immigration standpoint, most newcomers to Canada want to be in the big cities, so there will always be a demand for residential and commercial real estate.
How have the office and retail sectors recovered through the pandemic?
We can no longer look at the office as just a place to be from 9-5. We need to give people a reason to come into the office. So that might mean more amenities or more collaboration opportunities. And it will take some time to see the impact of that. People are still nervous to get on public transit and go into buildings.
There will be a change to how office and retail are used. We’ll probably see more mixed use properties. But we need more time for people to get comfortable with getting back out into the world. Companies are trying to figure out a hybrid model to meet people where they are.
Has Vancouver bounced back faster than Toronto post-pandemic?
Absolutely. Overall, Vancouver is 9.4% CMA whereas Toronto is close to 16%. We are seeing a quicker recovery in Vancouver. We see a lot of demand for newer and more modern spaces in both Vancouver and Toronto. Both cities have lots of office space under construction and good lease up rates.
Where are the current opportunities in the commercial real estate market?
Industrial is always a good idea. With industrial real estate, you can’t wait and see or else you’ll lose the opportunity. You have to act now. With any opportunity, you need to think about the potential for that site over the next few years. Can you afford to wait? It depends on your risk tolerance.
One of the biggest areas of activity is land acquisition. If you want to make that play, you can pick it up now and know that prices will go up. You have to believe in where you’re buying and believe we’ll get through the next 6-12 months.
Is there a moment in real estate history that feels like today?
We’ve had some bizarre times in Canadian real estate over the last 30+ years. But things feel different now. I don’t think it’s dire but there are a number of negative factors affecting our market like covid, rising cost of construction, the war in Ukraine, etc. So even if our numbers today are similar to numbers in the past, no slowdown is exactly the same.
Learn more: www.altusgroup.com
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Happy Holidays, Happy Hanukkah and Merry Christmas from all of us at the VCREP and thanks for listening in 2022. As the podcast continues to grow week-over-week we have some amazing guests lined up for 2023 which is shaping up to be our biggest year yet. Thanks for all the continued support and we look forward to some amazing shows in 2023!
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Jeff Kennedy of Troika Developments, one of Kelowna's most well-known builders, discusses the challenges in the development industry due to supply chain issues and inflation. He also gives insight into how developers would break down a purpose-built rental project vs. a strata site, along with the metrics behind the decision-making process.
For 24 months and counting, Vancouver Island has become a shining star in the commercial real estate world. John MacDonald, publisher of the Business Examiner, one of Vancouver Island's go to online business publications, unpack the numbers, breaks down how the Island markets fared, and provides insight on the Thompson Okanagan region.
Hear from the man who plausibly has more data on commercial real estate than anyone in Canada. Raymond Wong, VP of Data Operations at Altus Group, looks behind the numbers on what has happened across Canada in 2022 and unpacks which asset classes are selling, which are not, and what is set to rebound.
With the new Broadway Skytrain line in full swing, city council members now have to vote on what could be the biggest vote in Vancouver's history. Meg Cooney, Seamus Bailey, and Liam Simpson of WWC discuss the highlights and lowlights of the proposed plan.
The ongoing debate on Vancouver Island right now is Victoria or Nanaimo? Robin Kelley of the Groupe Denux, one of Vancouver Island’s long-standing families of real estate, provides insight on both markets and how each market has fared over the years, and unpacks which asset classes he thinks will continue to grow.
Rod MacKay of WWC’s Vancouver office discusses the most unpredictable year we’ve had in real estate yet. From faster than expected rising interest rates, to record breaking month-over-month inflation, to worldwide supply chain issues… 2022 has been anything but predictable.
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Bronwyn Scrivens from Omada Commercial Real Estate in Edmonton discusses Alberta’s growing industrial market. She shares how Alberta is receiving the halo effect from BC’s tight vacancy rates and staggering acquisition costs, and what tenants and developers are now looking into when it comes to Alberta vs BC.
One of the biggest secrets in commercial real estate is spotting the trends and staying ahead of them. Jonathan Meads, Vice President of StreetSide Developments, discusses the booming Fraser Valley markets and unpacks why StreetSide keeps their focus primarily on this area.
On a national and provincial level, one of the most exciting real estate markets has been Victoria. Mayor of Victoria, Lisa Helps, unpacks how Victoria got to where it is today, the goals she has accomplished in her eight years as mayor, and unveils what’s in store for BC’s capital city.
If you’ve been following the real estate markets in BC, you’ll know today’s hottest topic is the rapidly rising interest rates. Jon Switzer of Impact Commercial sheds light on how to navigate the next few months and provides tips on what to look for in your next purchase to maximize your lending ability.
Mike Kozakowski, founder of Citified Media and citified.ca, a comprehensive resource for researching new-build homes and commercial spaces on Vancouver Island, gives a glimpse into the years and years of new construction data Citified has tracked in the Greater Victoria area.
Sam Wilson, renowned host of the hugely popular podcast, How to Scale Commercial Real Estate, uncovers his roots in commercial investing, shares some mistakes he has made along the way, and talks us through what a good deal looks like to him.
If you had to guess which real estate market saw one of the biggest increases in commercial property value over the past 2 years, would you have guessed Chilliwack? David Algra of Algra Bros. Developments discusses their current downtown Chilliwack project, District 1881.
Leonard Krog, Mayor of Nanaimo, shares some great insight on all the new and upcoming projects and what the future holds for the port city. Plus, we dive into the highly anticipated and forthcoming OCP for the downtown and surrounding areas.
Cory and the team are hitting the beach this week for a well deserved break. Next week we are back with another phenomenal episode. Stay tuned!
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As Canada and the world continues to battle with Omicron, supply chains are challenged and the Bank of Canada surprisingly holds rates. Doug Porter, Chief Economist & Managing Director of BMO Financial Group, shares his thoughts on what’s next for the economy and his prediction for interest rates.
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Over the past 20 months, most industries have seen a lot of change and the law industry is no different. Tim Lack of Redpoint Law discusses the ever-changing world of the legal side of commercial real estate and shares insight on how the pandemic has changed how commercial real estate is leased, sold, and financed.
Over the past 20+ months, we have heard about supply chain issues, labour shortages, and logistical challenges, and this all has a direct impact on the construction of real estate in the province. Owen Lecky of Wales McLelland unwraps the issues that have been affecting our real estate market.
Do you own a property with lots of equity that has built up over the years? Alan Haigh of Impact Commercial Group, one of BC’s leaders in commercial mortgages, explains how to tap into that equity and turn one property into a thriving commercial portfolio without having to sell your asset.
Wishing our listeners a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
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