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As everyone winds down their work schedules in preparation for the holidays, the best news of 2022 was shared. This week, Cory and Matt had to bump their guest this week for some welcomed interest news… Finally!
While attending a holiday gathering, Jon Switzer of Impact Commercial shares that the 10-year bond numbers were falling, which predicts (fingers crossed) that fixed rates will follow. After hearing this, the VCREP crew had to get the news to the listeners, and Jon doesn’t disappoint.
Jon shares his prediction on interest rates for 2023 and when he sees rates pulling off and declining. If you have a mortgage, this is an episode you must take in.
Who is Jon Switzer?
I’m a partner and commercial mortgage broker at Impact Commercial; I’m not technically a founder but I’ve been around since the early days. I have a wide breadth of experience in a lot of markets which is good in times like these. Like many people, I seem to have come into real estate by accident but I’m loving every minute of it.
What is happening with interest rates right now?
We send out a regular newsletter to anyone who wants it. In our latest addition, we talked about the divergence between variable rates and fixed rates. But no one else seems to be talking about this!
The bond market is what determines fixed interest rates. The Bank of Canada is driving variable interest rates. That is a very misunderstood aspect of what’s going on right now.
Back in October, the Government of Canada bond yield was just under 4% and the Bank of Canada overnight rate was at 3.75%. Since then, the Bank of Canada overnight rate has gone up to 4.25% and the bond yield is just under 3%. The bond yield going down a whole percent is really important.
The bond market is usually way ahead of the game in predicting the moves of the Bank of Canada. We’re seeing that the bond yield has made up its mind about where the market is heading. We believe that will lead to a lower cost of capital in the spring for fixed rates, discounts in the real estate market (which we’re already seeing), added stability and market balance.
“If I had to make a prediction, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the tide on interest rates turn in the spring. There will be cheaper money out there to take advantage of the good deals.”
Should we follow the bond market for information about fixed rates?
Investors and owners should be more focused on what the Government of Canada bond yield is up to. Anyone at the mercy of variable rates, like land and construction financing, will need to pay attention to the Bank of Canada overnight rate.
There is continued pain in the variable lending space. If this is the top, that variable rate pain might be there for another year. But we do expect to see significantly lower fixed interest rates in the next 12 months.
What does a lower bond yield mean for borrowers and mortgages?
There is a lot that factors into the mortgage rates available in the market today. The rates we’re being quoted haven’t changed since October; we’re still in the 6.5% range for commercial lending. But as the bond yield falls, lender spreads are widening. Lenders are not passing on that discount to end-users but that is a temporary thing.
As time goes on and the Bank of Canada stops raising rates, competition will increase and that will translate to a decrease in the lender spread. If lender spread comes down from 350 basis points to 250 basis points, without anything else happening in the market, fixed rates will be 1% below what they are today.
In times of uncertainty, lenders will tack on a risk premium for the average buyer. If you’re a tier one builder, you might still get an enticing interest rate. But the average person would be subject to a heightened lender spread – aka a risk premium.
But when we get more certainty in the market and lenders want to start lending again, we’ll see those spreads come down. Lenders will have to get more competitive.
Why is the bond market so good at predicting the Bank of Canada’s policy change?
The bond market largely flies under the radar; it’s considered the boring publicly traded market. The stock market is where the sexy money is. But the bond market is actually twice the size of the stock market and is guided by the smartest money out there.
They’re so good at it because they know that when the Bank of Canada makes a large move, it’s going to have massive effects down the line. It will take time, but the effects will trickle down through the economy. On the other hand, the bond market can trade minute by minute, so they can price in these fall-outs immediately.
If someone is taking out a mortgage now, should they assume they’ll pay high interest for a year but get a better rate a year from now?
It would depend on how and when your asset gets repositioned. If you get some really strong leases in, maybe six months from now we could put you into a one year fixed rate mortgage. Anything we’re putting people into now is a maximum of two years.
We have an inverted yield curve right now. What that means is that a major bank just gave me quotes for 1-5 year terms, one year at 6.85% and 5 years at 5.95%. Everything is flipped on its head right now. I don’t want to lock my clients into a five year rate but I also don’t want them to suffer under 6.85% for a year. So we landed on 2 years at 6.3%. That’s kind of the sweet spot right now.
What does an inverted yield curve mean for the larger economy?
We’re all hearing about an upcoming recession. And historically, a recession almost always follows an inverted yield curve. That makes sense because the central bank has artificially jacked up the short end of the yield curve very quickly. The market doesn’t believe that’s here to stay. So when capital costs go up that quickly, a recession usually follows.
“It’s like the Bank is taking a taser to the economy. They probably should’ve acted sooner and done this more gradually. But now they’re playing catch up and have had to take this drastic action. Everyone is feeling it.”
Is Canada’s economy headed towards a hockey stick recovery?
The recession we’re likely going into would be a manufactured or policy-induced recession, not one driven by a sudden catastrophe. The central banks usually know we’re heading into a recession and know they’ll need to cut overnight interest rates. With depressed asset prices and cheaper capital, that could turn the ship around very quickly.
The effects of a recession and recovery will also depend where you live in Canada. BC may avoid the recession altogether thanks to immigration and the fact that we’re a central hub for the global supply chain.
I do agree that this is an artificial recession but I would be careful about calling it a hockey stick recovery. I don’t think we’ll go back to the good old days but I do think we’ll see steady growth coming out of this. As a long term investor, that’s what you want.
Is now a good time to buy commercial real estate?
I do think now is a good time to buy, though don’t get anything under contract between now and the end of the year. There’s a lag in real estate, especially in commercial real estate. If you enter into a contract on January 15th, you probably won’t be closing until March or even later.
But I am bullish on the spring 2023 commercial market. So yes, now is the right time to try and find a deal.
“If you wait another six months to find a deal, the market will have gotten ahead of you. I believe the right time is now.”
Cory Wright: I agree with Jon. Look at Kelowna for example: Cap rates got down to 4% after they were at 5.5% a few months earlier. If I can get into that market now at a discount, I’ll gladly pay more in interest if I believe the market will come back. Some people are turned off right away by the higher interest rates. But if I can get a lower sale cost, I’ll pay the higher interest because of upside in the market or upside on the property.
During the height of covid, we saw a very small spread in cap rates between Vancouver and Chilliwack. But that was when money was almost free with a lot of external factors driving the real estate market. I don’t think we’ll be going back to that. But if you believe in your market and the cap rates, now is the time to buy.
“The rich get richer in down markets. Some people have to sell now because they’re being forced to. So now is an outstanding time to buy if you believe in the market you’re going into.”
Where are the exciting real estate markets with good cap rates in BC?
Cory Wright: I’m a big believer in the secondary and tertiary markets of BC. Covid put a bigger emphasis on these markets thanks to remote work models. For example, Nanaimo is a place to watch. The fast ferry coming in 2023 will make Nanaimo a very attractive place for people who want affordability and access to Vancouver.
Not a lot of lenders are excited to go into these smaller markets, but there are some good deals to find. 24 months from now, you’ll be the smartest person in the room if you buy now.
Industrial lease rates in Nanaimo are $13-16 per square foot versus $18-22 in the Lower Mainland. In fact, the highest industrial lease rate in BC is on Vancouver Island. So there’s no massive discount anymore between Vancouver and these smaller markets. If I can get a better cap rate in a market with higher population growth, I’ll take that deal all day long.
You have to know the markets you’re going into. If you look at markets with a higher cap rate and a good runway on lease rates, that’s the way to go. If you look at Nanaimo, Kelowna, Kamloops, and Victoria, you are going to see a once-in-a-generation bump in rates. We saw the same thing in Yaletown when people signed $30/square foot lease rates and renewed at $80.
We had clients buy something at $12/square foot in Nanaimo and renew tenants at $19-20/square foot. That’s a massive bump that they probably won’t see again. If you can find it, that’s where the value is. Although the numbers don’t seem as impactful in the smaller markets, there are opportunities. But you need to buy them at current income, not based on what tenants might pay in the future.
“If you find something with a market cap rate and below-market lease rates, that’s an opportunity.”
Jon Switzer: If lenders are willing to lend in these secondary and tertiary markets, absolutely go for it. But with elevated real estate values and elevated interest rates, you need more money down.
Most places around the Lower Mainland need 60% down, which is actually less risk and more money for the lenders. The money is there, but lenders are pickier in smaller communities. They only want the best borrowers. The majority of lenders are looking to lend, it just has to be the right fit.
“If we’re correct and rates come down next year, lenders will be more competitive. It won’t take long until the money is flowing because there is still a lot of money in the system.”The 6 Pack: Getting to Know Impact Commercial Partner & Commercial Mortgage Broker, Jon Switzer
What is your favourite holiday drink?
That’s an easy one! Rum and eggnog.
What is the best holiday party you’ve been to in 2022?
I haven’t been to that many so it would have to be last night’s William Wright Commercial party!
Gingerbread cookies or sugar cookies?
I’ll go sugar all the way.
What is your favourite holiday vacation spot?
Honestly, I love being around here at Christmas. Being in the sun at Christmas isn’t very festive. I know a lot of people love Christmas in Mexico but I prefer to be here. I’ll go out of town in the fall.
Favourite holiday song, album or artist?
All I Want for Christmas by Mariah Carey is up there but I’ll have to go with the soundtrack for National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation. It’s incredibly nostalgic.
Favourite holiday meal?
Let’s stick to the classics: turkey, mashed potatoes and stuffing. Plus lots of gravy!
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Happy Holidays, Happy Hanukkah and Merry Christmas from all of us at the VCREP and thanks for listening in 2022. As the podcast continues to grow week-over-week we have some amazing guests lined up for 2023 which is shaping up to be our biggest year yet. Thanks for all the continued support and we look forward to some amazing shows in 2023!
Jon Switzer of Impact Commercial shares that the 10-year bond numbers were falling, which predicts (fingers crossed) that fixed rates will follow. Jon shares his prediction on interest rates for 2023 and when he sees rates pulling off and declining. If you have a mortgage, this is an episode you must take in.
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Rod MacKay of WWC’s Vancouver office discusses the most unpredictable year we’ve had in real estate yet. From faster than expected rising interest rates, to record breaking month-over-month inflation, to worldwide supply chain issues… 2022 has been anything but predictable.
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Bronwyn Scrivens from Omada Commercial Real Estate in Edmonton discusses Alberta’s growing industrial market. She shares how Alberta is receiving the halo effect from BC’s tight vacancy rates and staggering acquisition costs, and what tenants and developers are now looking into when it comes to Alberta vs BC.
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On a national and provincial level, one of the most exciting real estate markets has been Victoria. Mayor of Victoria, Lisa Helps, unpacks how Victoria got to where it is today, the goals she has accomplished in her eight years as mayor, and unveils what’s in store for BC’s capital city.
If you’ve been following the real estate markets in BC, you’ll know today’s hottest topic is the rapidly rising interest rates. Jon Switzer of Impact Commercial sheds light on how to navigate the next few months and provides tips on what to look for in your next purchase to maximize your lending ability.
Mike Kozakowski, founder of Citified Media and citified.ca, a comprehensive resource for researching new-build homes and commercial spaces on Vancouver Island, gives a glimpse into the years and years of new construction data Citified has tracked in the Greater Victoria area.
Sam Wilson, renowned host of the hugely popular podcast, How to Scale Commercial Real Estate, uncovers his roots in commercial investing, shares some mistakes he has made along the way, and talks us through what a good deal looks like to him.
If you had to guess which real estate market saw one of the biggest increases in commercial property value over the past 2 years, would you have guessed Chilliwack? David Algra of Algra Bros. Developments discusses their current downtown Chilliwack project, District 1881.
Leonard Krog, Mayor of Nanaimo, shares some great insight on all the new and upcoming projects and what the future holds for the port city. Plus, we dive into the highly anticipated and forthcoming OCP for the downtown and surrounding areas.
Cory and the team are hitting the beach this week for a well deserved break. Next week we are back with another phenomenal episode. Stay tuned!
Named Canada’s fastest growing city with a 14% increase in population since 2016, Jon Friesen, CEO of the Mission Group, the company behind some of Kelowna’s spectacular tower developments, discusses why Kelowna has seen such a massive growth over the past 5 years and what the future looks like.
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Have you ever wanted to make the money real estate developers do? Ravi Mann of PROPetual REIT and the Isle of Mann Property Group discusses the exciting new investment opportunities that can get anyone through the real estate investment door for as little as $5,000.
Have you ever wanted to make the money real estate developers do? Ravi Mann of PROPetual REIT and the Isle of Mann Property Group discusses the exciting new investment opportunities that can get anyone through the real estate investment door for as little as $5,000.
As Canada and the world continues to battle with Omicron, supply chains are challenged and the Bank of Canada surprisingly holds rates. Doug Porter, Chief Economist & Managing Director of BMO Financial Group, shares his thoughts on what’s next for the economy and his prediction for interest rates.
Ever wonder which commercial asset class has the lowest cap rate but offers the most stable returns? Marianne DeCotiis, a multifamily specialist with WWC, breaks down the multifamily asset class, sharing how it’s funded, how the leases are government regulated, and plenty more!
Over the past 20 months, most industries have seen a lot of change and the law industry is no different. Tim Lack of Redpoint Law discusses the ever-changing world of the legal side of commercial real estate and shares insight on how the pandemic has changed how commercial real estate is leased, sold, and financed.
Over the past 20+ months, we have heard about supply chain issues, labour shortages, and logistical challenges, and this all has a direct impact on the construction of real estate in the province. Owen Lecky of Wales McLelland unwraps the issues that have been affecting our real estate market.
Do you own a property with lots of equity that has built up over the years? Alan Haigh of Impact Commercial Group, one of BC’s leaders in commercial mortgages, explains how to tap into that equity and turn one property into a thriving commercial portfolio without having to sell your asset.
Wishing our listeners a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
From Keltic Development Canada, Steve Jedreicich, Senior VP of Development, and Andy Tam, Senior VP of Business Development, discuss their recent 27-acre acquisition in Richmond, which tops off this year as the biggest transaction of 2021 at a whopping $300,000,000!
This past year has bolstered some amazing results for those who invested in commercial real estate, and this week we’re going to give you the VCREP Top 5 Markets for 2022! Rod MacKay from WWC’s Vancouver office joins Cory to discuss which markets will be ones to watch heading into the new year.
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Maxime Charron, President of LeadingAhead Energy, an industry-leading electric car charging solution provider, talks about how the impact that electric vehicles are having on society is causing more and more developers and commercial landlords to install EV car charging solutions on their properties.
It’s no secret downtown Vancouver has been slower than its pre-COVID form, but is it as bad as other cities? Nolan Marshall, CEO of the Downtown Vancouver Business Improvement Association (DVBIA), discusses what’s next for downtown Vancouver and how things have fared over the pandemic.
Did you find the perfect commercial property to invest in, but you’re not sure where or how to start? Matthew Dunnigan, commercial mortgage specialist from Impact Commercial Group, breaks down all the steps needed to acquire that commercial investment property you’ve always wanted.
Peter Leung, the Investorpreneur himself, who has amassed an international real estate portfolio in London, Vancouver, and Hong Kong, provides his insight on how to get started in commercial real estate and how commercial offers greater opportunities for investors who require funding.
So many commercial real estate deals happen off the MLS, so where do investors go for market data? Raymond Wong, Vice President, Data Operations of Altus Group, details why Altus is a one-stop shop when it comes to data and research in the world of commercial real estate across Canada.
Senior writer Frank O’Brien of Glacier Media, home of Business in Vancouver and Western Investor, shares where he sees the winners and losers in the post-COVID era. He also gives a sneak peek at the upcoming Best in BC, where he and his team predict the 5 best real estate markets in 2022.
Don’t have the millions of dollars needed to enter self storage in BC? Don’t worry! Hugh Cartwright, Co-founder and Chairman of NationWide Self Storage Trust, breaks down the investment opportunities their self storage developments offer for as little as $10,000.
They say hindsight is 20/20 and looking back at the Vancouver real estate market, it’s fair to say we all wish we would have bought more. Chard Development’s President and CEO Byron Chard talks about the booming Victoria real estate market and his thoughts on where the Victoria market is headed.
Strand Development’s President Mike Mackay discusses everything Langford, BC. With the recent acquisition of the former Langford Speedway, which encompasses over 80 acres of prime development land, the excitement of the Greater Vancouver Island industrial market just keeps growing.
Jeff Prete, President of Jima Cannabis, unpacks the impact the cannabis business has had on retail in Vancouver and throughout the province. Ever wonder how long it takes to get a store open, how much capital you need, and if the stores are even that profitable? The answer Jeff gives might surprise you.
Is there a real estate market that has attracted more hype during the pandemic than Kelowna? Jeff Brown, Team Leader of WWC’s Kelowna office, discusses the readily growing Kelowna real estate market, what, if any, impact the BC wildfires have had, and how Kelowna can top the recent growth into fall and beyond.
Ever wish you could go back in time and buy as much Vancouver real estate as you could in 2003? It may not be too late to buy into what could be BC’s next real estate market set to boom: Kamloops. Bryan Pilbeam, Vice President of Invictus Properties, discusses everything Kamloops and more.
Impact Commercial’s Jon Switzer, owner occupier financial specialist, shows business owners how to unlock their revenues, enabling them to become their own landlord, and in some cases, with as little as 0% down including closing costs. Jon highlights the do’s and don’ts when purchasing real estate for your business.
Have you ever wondered how a property goes from an old house into a new multi-level condo building? From the years of approval and planning that takes place to the “not so big” profit margins developers work off of, Jordan MacDonald, CEO of Fabric Living, gives a first hand look at the development process in Vancouver.
Over the past year and a half, the world has seen many changes… but is the office space one of them? Drew Ratcliffe of And-Co, a new all-in-one, multi-level, office community, complete with a wellness studio, restaurant, and event space, shares his vision of what he feels the future of office space in Vancouver will look like.
There is no question the hospitality sector has been hit the hardest by the pandemic. Glowbal Group CEO Emad Yacoub, one of Vancouver’s most prominent restaurateurs, discusses the challenges the industry has had to overcome to survive and what the future of the business looks like.
Ever wonder about that 5′ x 5′ self storage unit that you rented for $110/month to store all that crap you never use? Pat Wood, formerly one of the authorities, if not THE authority, in self storage appraisals and consulting, discusses why this asset class has seen a huge run in the past couple of years.
Ever wanted to buy commercial real estate, but never felt you had the financial ability to do so? Mitch Jarvi from Addy, a crowdsourcing investment platform, walks through the new opportunities Addy offers to its members by acquiring shares in various commercial real estate properties for as little as $1.
For all the curious minds interested in commercial real estate investing, grab a coffee and pull up a chair because we have exclusive stories and tips from commercial real estate brokers, investors, developers, economists, urban planners, and everyone in-between. From the successes and failures to the motivations and lessons learned, the Vancouver Commercial Real Estate Podcast is your insight into commercial real estate in Vancouver, Victoria, Kelowna, and beyond.
What's the best real estate market to invest in? What are the commercial real estate asset classes and property types? Hosted by Cory Wright, founder of William Wright Commercial, and co-hosts Adam and Matt Scalena of the Vancouver Real Estate Podcast, our podcast opens the door to real estate investing for everyone from beginner investors to experienced real estate professionals. New episodes are released every Tuesday. Follow the Vancouver Commercial Real Estate Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, or your favourite streaming platforms.
This communication is not intended to cause or induce breach of an existing agency agreement. E&OE: All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable, and have no reason to doubt its accuracy; however, no guarantee or responsibility is assumed thereof, and it shall not form any part of future contracts. Properties are submitted subject to errors and omissions and all information should be carefully verified. All measurements quoted herein are approximate.
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