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It's that time again, and just like last year, the team unveils their 5 best commercial investment markets for 2023. This week, Cory and Melisa welcome back Rod MacKay from William Wright Commercial's Vancouver office to roll out where you want to invest this year. The criteria is simple: these markets offer above average returns with the opportunity for a major increase in net operating income in the coming years, resulting in a big potential equity gain. We can't give away the best investment advice in the write-up, so you will have to listen to the episode to find out. Get your pens and notepads ready because Rod doesn't disappoint!
The word for 2023 is opportunity! Discover the best commercial real estate opportunities for you when we count down the 5 best commercial investment markets for 2023!
2023 is here! Are we seeing more interest in residential real estate this January?
We are feeling a bit of an uptick over the last few weeks. I think we’re cautiously optimistic about a good first quarter.
Who is Rod MacKay?
I was born and raised in Vancouver and have lived here my whole life. I ended up at William Wright Commercial after about seven years in the hospitality business. And now I’ve been here five years.
What is the criteria for selecting the top 5 commercial investment markets for 2023?
We chose markets where you have a great opportunity to get in now and where you’ll see a higher average return on your money in the foreseeable future. If a city isn’t on the list, it isn’t because it’s a bad market. It may just be more expensive to get into and have lower cap rates.
Let’s dive in! What’s #5 on the list?
The 5th commercial investment market for 2023 is Calgary. We’re going out of province! In the first quarter of 2022, Calgary had some massive office transactions. We saw a lot of markets tracking and investments rising in early 2022; there was a lot of growth in Calgary relative to other markets.
The cost of living in Calgary is low and they’ve done a great job backfilling their office market with the tech industry. The city is also looking to convert some of their office space into residential space. They’ve done a great job trying to diversify themselves and there are lots of opportunities in the downtown core.
The Class A office market in Calgary has a 7-8% vacancy rate, which is considered healthy and balanced. Years ago when that market had more vacancy, a lot of the Class B office market moved into Class A and absorbed those vacancies.
Calgary is a safe investment that will see slower growth, but is one to watch.
“Over the next five years, Calgary is going to be a great opportunity for people who hadn’t thought of Calgary in the past 10 years.”
There’s been a big push from the Alberta government to get people to move to Calgary and other parts of Alberta based on cost of living alone.
We don’t currently operate in Calgary or Alberta so don’t know the market as well as we do our BC markets. But we’ve been reading reports, following the market for years and hearing a lot of excitement around it.
What is #4 on the list of best commercial real estate markets for 2023?
Number four on the list is Abbotsford in the Fraser Valley. What we’re really looking at is the industrial market in Abbotsford.
At the end of 2022, it was announced that a new 140 acre industrial plot was just approved in Abbotsford. It will bring in over 9.4 million square feet of industrial real estate. Industrial space has been scarce across the Lower Mainland, so this will ease the burden, especially with Abbotsford being so close to the border.
“Abbotsford has a great opportunity to become a logistics hub. Having an industrial market in Abbotsford for companies that go up to the Interior, to Alberta or across the border will be huge.”
Abbotsford also has the airport, the university, and growing multi-family projects. There’s a lot in the Abbotsford and Chilliwack area to be excited about.
I don’t think we’ll get back to the high prices we saw during the pandemic when everyone was moving out to the Fraser Valley and interest rates were low. But there are still excellent opportunities for those in the Lower Mainland who want to buy where they know.
Abbotsford also has a high population and is so accessible. On the residential side, pricing has come down significantly from what it was at the peak. So there’s a lot of opportunities. A lot of people will be looking at Abbotsford as a hub in 2023!
What is #3 of the best commercial investment markets for 2023?
The third commercial market to invest in this year is Kamloops. We’re investing in Kamloops because it’s one of the fastest growing cities in Canada.
Traditionally, Kamloops was a logistics hub and known as the tournament capital of Canada. But now we’re seeing a lot of development, spurred on by affordability. A lot of people who got priced out of Kelowna and the surrounding areas are moving into Kamloops.
Prices have gone up and infrastructure is coming in. We’re seeing high demand and low vacancy in Kamloops. The multi-family asset class is a tremendous opportunity, as is the industrial asset class. As those markets grow, the office market will grow, even though office isn’t a big industry in Kamloops right now. It’s only going to get better.
“Kelowna has the greatest runway ahead of it. It may take a little longer, but if you get into the market now and play the medium to long term game, it will be a tremendous investment.”
A lot of people are asking about Kamloops who have never asked before. That’s an indication that the market is about to take off!
What is #2 on our list of best commercial investment markets?
The second best commercial investment market for 2023 is Kelowna, returning to our list from last year.
Population growth is a big factor in choosing our top five – if people are moving to the city, that means money is pouring into the city, which leads to more infrastructure and investments.
Kelowna is the fastest growing city in Canada, with a 14% population growth from 2016 to 2021. International immigration was slowed during covid so a lot of people are moving to Kelowna from BC and from Canada.
Kelowna has had a tremendous run, no questions asked. But Kelowna has land restrictions. As the population continues to come in, the city will have to keep growing.
UBC is building a massive new campus, big companies are making investments, towers are coming in and the city council is very forward-thinking. The climate is also amazing! Kelowna is no longer just supported by tourism – there’s real estate, construction, education, healthcare, etc.
We may be seeing a little pull-off right now, just because the run-up during covid was so big. But I think that will return. So right now you might be able to buy something in Kelowna you wouldn’t have been able to a year ago. And you may be paying a bit less.
“You have an opportunity to buy something in Kelowna now, at maybe a slight discount, knowing there’s a tremendous runway with that market. You might not have gotten in a year ago, but we think the market will return in a few years across all commercial asset classes.”
And the #1 best commercial investment market for 2023 is…
The best commercial investment market for 2023 is Nanaimo. Last year our number one pick was Victoria and this year we’re heading less than two hours away to Nanaimo. There has been a lot of buzz about Nanaimo recently!
There’s a huge investment coming into Nanaimo’s container port. That’s expected to bring over 1000 new jobs. The major employers in Nanaimo are recession-resistant: healthcare and education. We’re also seeing a lot of people moving to Nanaimo after being priced out of Victoria. Nanaimo is the third fastest growing city in Canada.
The fast ferry is also coming this summer, connecting Nanaimo to Vancouver in under an hour. That, plus the affordability of Nanaimo, will open it up. We also have a progressive mayor and council who are bringing in a new OCP to build out the downtown commercial street. A lot of projects are coming to fruition.
“This is your time to get into Nanaimo. This is your greatest opportunity to make money because you’re getting into a market with lower vacancy rates in most asset classes, great population growth, and a forward-thinking council.”
A lot of people from the mainland who never considered Nanaimo are now interested in investing there. This is your best bet to invest in 2023, as long as you can get the right price. With these smaller markets, you have to understand the local market and buy smart. Work with a professional who understands the local market.
To recap, the 5 best commercial investment markets for 2023 are:
And four out of the five have William Wright Commercial offices!
The 6 Pack: Getting to Know William Wright Commercial Agent, Rod MacKay
What is your new year’s resolution?
I prefer to have goals, rather than resolutions. But this year, I’ve signed up for a marathon on May 7th. Whether I make it or not, we’ll see!
What was the best Christmas gift you got this year?
My girlfriend got me a new watch. I had a FitBit before and thought I didn’t need anything better. But this new watch is amazing!
What’s a book you recommend to our listeners for 2023?
Continuing with my theme, I just finished a book called Never Finished by David Goggins. He’s an interesting guy! He mentions running ultramarathons in this book. It’s very impressive what he does both physically and mentally.
Imagine you’re on death row. What’s your last meal?
It’s going to be a 48 ounce, bone-in rib-eye with lots of mushrooms and asparagus, all well seasoned. Though 48 ounces might be a little big!
What are you binge watching?
I just finished The Lincoln Lawyer. I really enjoyed it!
Best advice for our listeners in 2023?
2023 is going to be a very different market than what we’ve seen in the last couple of years. You need to lean on people for advice. Call up your broker and see what they’re seeing so you can put your best foot forward.
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Rod MacKay from William Wright Commercial shares the 5 best commercial investment markets for 2023. These markets offer above average returns with the opportunity for a major increase in net operating income in the coming years, resulting in a big potential equity gain.
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Happy Holidays, Happy Hanukkah and Merry Christmas from all of us at the VCREP and thanks for listening in 2022. As the podcast continues to grow week-over-week we have some amazing guests lined up for 2023 which is shaping up to be our biggest year yet. Thanks for all the continued support and we look forward to some amazing shows in 2023!
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Frank O'Brien shares Western Investor's top cities for commercial real estate in 2023. This year's list has a few VCREP favourites plus a couple surprises, not to mention the #1 spot isn't even in BC! Frank also shares his opinion on David Eby's new housing plan and how it could be opening an even bigger opportunity for speculators.
Impact Commercial's Co-founder and Managing Partner Alan Haigh unpacks what has happened over the past couple of months in both Canada and the US, how the bond market could predict what will happen to interest rates, and when this madness will end.
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As interest rates continue to push upwards, Harry Jones of William Wright Commercial Victoria discusses the Greater Victoria market that just doesn't slow down regardless of market conditions, and walks through all the asset classes and how they have performed over the past year and what is to come as interest rates continue to rise.
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Mayor Ed Mayne discusses the exciting opportunities Parksville is currently experiencing in the Central Island market. As Nanaimo continues to boom, just 20 minutes up the road sits Parksville, which has seen a development boom of their own, led by a proactive mayor who has the experience to guide the community into 2022 and beyond.
If you were shocked by the Bank of Canada's 1% increase to interest rates this past week, you're not alone. Cory and Matt discuss the potential impact on commercial real estate... if any all. How does this affect your loan-to-value ratio when looking to acquire real estate? And what's next for the commercial real estate market in the province?
Which commercial market has the whole country talking? Lori Suba and Laurae Spindler of Scout Real Estate in Calgary unpacks the rollercoaster of action the Prairies are experiencing in the commercial market. You might be surprised to hear there's now overwhelming demand for one asset class in particular, which has seen growth in numbers similar to that of BC!
Jeff Kennedy of Troika Developments, one of Kelowna's most well-known builders, discusses the challenges in the development industry due to supply chain issues and inflation. He also gives insight into how developers would break down a purpose-built rental project vs. a strata site, along with the metrics behind the decision-making process.
For 24 months and counting, Vancouver Island has become a shining star in the commercial real estate world. John MacDonald, publisher of the Business Examiner, one of Vancouver Island's go to online business publications, unpack the numbers, breaks down how the Island markets fared, and provides insight on the Thompson Okanagan region.
Hear from the man who plausibly has more data on commercial real estate than anyone in Canada. Raymond Wong, VP of Data Operations at Altus Group, looks behind the numbers on what has happened across Canada in 2022 and unpacks which asset classes are selling, which are not, and what is set to rebound.
With the new Broadway Skytrain line in full swing, city council members now have to vote on what could be the biggest vote in Vancouver's history. Meg Cooney, Seamus Bailey, and Liam Simpson of WWC discuss the highlights and lowlights of the proposed plan.
The ongoing debate on Vancouver Island right now is Victoria or Nanaimo? Robin Kelley of the Groupe Denux, one of Vancouver Island’s long-standing families of real estate, provides insight on both markets and how each market has fared over the years, and unpacks which asset classes he thinks will continue to grow.
Rod MacKay of WWC’s Vancouver office discusses the most unpredictable year we’ve had in real estate yet. From faster than expected rising interest rates, to record breaking month-over-month inflation, to worldwide supply chain issues… 2022 has been anything but predictable.
Ever find a great restaurant on your favourite food app, but then realize they don’t have a brick and mortar location you can enjoy? Amrit Maharaj, Chief Operating Officer of Coho Collective, breaks down what a ghost kitchen is, why restaurants are getting in on the action, and how they have capitalized on the food app boom.
Bronwyn Scrivens from Omada Commercial Real Estate in Edmonton discusses Alberta’s growing industrial market. She shares how Alberta is receiving the halo effect from BC’s tight vacancy rates and staggering acquisition costs, and what tenants and developers are now looking into when it comes to Alberta vs BC.
One of the biggest secrets in commercial real estate is spotting the trends and staying ahead of them. Jonathan Meads, Vice President of StreetSide Developments, discusses the booming Fraser Valley markets and unpacks why StreetSide keeps their focus primarily on this area.
On a national and provincial level, one of the most exciting real estate markets has been Victoria. Mayor of Victoria, Lisa Helps, unpacks how Victoria got to where it is today, the goals she has accomplished in her eight years as mayor, and unveils what’s in store for BC’s capital city.
If you’ve been following the real estate markets in BC, you’ll know today’s hottest topic is the rapidly rising interest rates. Jon Switzer of Impact Commercial sheds light on how to navigate the next few months and provides tips on what to look for in your next purchase to maximize your lending ability.
Mike Kozakowski, founder of Citified Media and citified.ca, a comprehensive resource for researching new-build homes and commercial spaces on Vancouver Island, gives a glimpse into the years and years of new construction data Citified has tracked in the Greater Victoria area.
Sam Wilson, renowned host of the hugely popular podcast, How to Scale Commercial Real Estate, uncovers his roots in commercial investing, shares some mistakes he has made along the way, and talks us through what a good deal looks like to him.
If you had to guess which real estate market saw one of the biggest increases in commercial property value over the past 2 years, would you have guessed Chilliwack? David Algra of Algra Bros. Developments discusses their current downtown Chilliwack project, District 1881.
Leonard Krog, Mayor of Nanaimo, shares some great insight on all the new and upcoming projects and what the future holds for the port city. Plus, we dive into the highly anticipated and forthcoming OCP for the downtown and surrounding areas.
Cory and the team are hitting the beach this week for a well deserved break. Next week we are back with another phenomenal episode. Stay tuned!
Named Canada’s fastest growing city with a 14% increase in population since 2016, Jon Friesen, CEO of the Mission Group, the company behind some of Kelowna’s spectacular tower developments, discusses why Kelowna has seen such a massive growth over the past 5 years and what the future looks like.
Recently named BC’s most resilient economy by BC Business Magazine, Langford could be BC’s next big thing. Mayor Stewart Young discusses the amazing developments happening throughout the city and story of how Langford landed Costco, followed by Home Depot, and now Tesla Motors.
Ever wonder if you could buy an office building or a retail shopping mall for only $150,000? Darcy Ulmer, Co-founder and Partner at Stream Property Partners, shares how everyday investors can invest in some big commercial real estate assets for a fraction of the purchase price.
Have you ever wanted to make the money real estate developers do? Ravi Mann of PROPetual REIT and the Isle of Mann Property Group discusses the exciting new investment opportunities that can get anyone through the real estate investment door for as little as $5,000.
Have you ever wanted to make the money real estate developers do? Ravi Mann of PROPetual REIT and the Isle of Mann Property Group discusses the exciting new investment opportunities that can get anyone through the real estate investment door for as little as $5,000.
As Canada and the world continues to battle with Omicron, supply chains are challenged and the Bank of Canada surprisingly holds rates. Doug Porter, Chief Economist & Managing Director of BMO Financial Group, shares his thoughts on what’s next for the economy and his prediction for interest rates.
Ever wonder which commercial asset class has the lowest cap rate but offers the most stable returns? Marianne DeCotiis, a multifamily specialist with WWC, breaks down the multifamily asset class, sharing how it’s funded, how the leases are government regulated, and plenty more!
Over the past 20 months, most industries have seen a lot of change and the law industry is no different. Tim Lack of Redpoint Law discusses the ever-changing world of the legal side of commercial real estate and shares insight on how the pandemic has changed how commercial real estate is leased, sold, and financed.
Over the past 20+ months, we have heard about supply chain issues, labour shortages, and logistical challenges, and this all has a direct impact on the construction of real estate in the province. Owen Lecky of Wales McLelland unwraps the issues that have been affecting our real estate market.
Do you own a property with lots of equity that has built up over the years? Alan Haigh of Impact Commercial Group, one of BC’s leaders in commercial mortgages, explains how to tap into that equity and turn one property into a thriving commercial portfolio without having to sell your asset.
Wishing our listeners a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
For all the curious minds interested in commercial real estate investing, grab a coffee and pull up a chair because we have exclusive stories and tips from commercial real estate brokers, investors, developers, economists, urban planners, and everyone in-between. From the successes and failures to the motivations and lessons learned, the Vancouver Commercial Real Estate Podcast is your insight into commercial real estate in Vancouver, Victoria, Kelowna, and beyond.
What's the best real estate market to invest in? What are the commercial real estate asset classes and property types? Hosted by Cory Wright, founder of William Wright Commercial, and co-hosts Adam and Matt Scalena of the Vancouver Real Estate Podcast, our podcast opens the door to real estate investing for everyone from beginner investors to experienced real estate professionals. New episodes are released every Tuesday. Follow the Vancouver Commercial Real Estate Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, or your favourite streaming platforms.
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